Thursday’s game that pits the No. 16 North Carolina Tar Heels (7-1) versus the No. 14 Kentucky Wildcats (7-0) at Carmichael Arena has a projected final score of 65-61 (based on our computer prediction) in favor of North Carolina, who is a small favorite in this matchup according to our model. Tipoff is at 5:00 PM ET on December 5.

Based on our computer prediction, Kentucky projects to cover the 8.5-point spread in its matchup against North Carolina. The over/under is currently listed at 130.5, and the two teams are projected to come in below that total.

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North Carolina vs. Kentucky Game Info & Odds

• Date: Thursday, December 5, 2024
• Time: 5:00 PM ET
• TV channel: ESPN2
• Live stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
• Where: Chapel Hill, North Carolina
• Venue: Carmichael Arena
• Line: North Carolina -8.5
• Point total: 130.5
• Moneyline (to win): North Carolina -450, Kentucky +333

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North Carolina vs. Kentucky Score Prediction

• Prediction:
  North Carolina 65, Kentucky 61

Spread & Total Prediction for North Carolina vs. Kentucky

• Pick ATS: Kentucky (+8.5)
• Pick OU: Under (130.5)

North Carolina is 4-1-0 against the spread this season compared to Kentucky’s 3-1-0 ATS record. None of the Tar Heels’ games this season have hit the over, and one of the Wildcats’ games have gone over. The teams score an average of 151.6 points per game, 21.1 more points than this matchup’s total.

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North Carolina Performance Insights

• The Tar Heels outscore opponents by 24.9 points per game (scoring 73.5 points per game to rank 85th in college basketball while allowing 48.6 per outing to rank third in college basketball) and have a +199 scoring differential overall.
• North Carolina pulls down 37.8 rebounds per game (44th in college basketball) while allowing 31.1 per outing to its opponents. It outrebounds opponents by 6.7 boards per game.
• North Carolina hits 8.4 three-pointers per game (35th in college basketball), 3.9 more than its opponents (4.5).
• The Tar Heels rank 76th in college basketball with 91.2 points scored per 100 possessions, and eighth in college basketball defensively with 60.3 points conceded per 100 possessions.
• North Carolina wins the turnover battle by seven per game, committing 11.5 (16th in college basketball) while its opponents average 18.5.

Kentucky Performance Insights

• The Wildcats outscore opponents by 25.5 points per game (posting 78.1 points per game, 49th in college basketball, and allowing 52.6 per contest, 15th in college basketball) and have a +179 scoring differential.
• Kentucky prevails in the rebound battle by an average of 12.5 boards. It grabs 40.9 rebounds per game (15th in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 28.4.
• Kentucky makes 7 three-pointers per game (110th in college basketball) while shooting 28.2% from deep (250th in college basketball). It is making 2.6 more threes than its opponents, who drain 4.4 per game at 23.8%.
• Kentucky has committed 12.1 turnovers per game (27th in college basketball), 1.5 fewer than the 13.6 it forces (311th in college basketball).

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